Wolves of Crypto prediction accuracy
C
10–19%
17%
30%
all resolved (42)
42%
30-day direction (53)
77
calls logged
34
open right now
5
flips (30d)
Current stance
▲ BTC → $87,900
Sep 26 · open
▼ ETH
Jul 26 · miss
Is Wolves of Crypto accurate?
Grade C: on 18 predictions where Wolves of Crypto named the deadline themselves, the target was hit 17% of the time. A month after each directional call, the price had moved the way they said 42% of the time (53 calls). Every call below is quoted, dated and priced.
The record
“we should be seeing a monthly candle close above $87,900”
“If we see a weekly candle above $83,000, that is bullish. If we see a weekly candle above $86,000, that is exceptionally bullish.”
“In fact, I'm still macro bearish. I still think that the base case for Bitcoin is further downside price action.”
“If we're going to be reaching a low of $48,000, as you can see by this red line, we're actually very much approaching a point of being quite dramatically behind schedule. So a drop would have to come soon.”
“If it closes upwards again, that's likely a confirmed breakout, especially if it comes alongside a break of $83,000.”
“It could be anywhere between the $36,000 region and the $48,000 region.”
“If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above $83,000, it is very likely to have flipped into a confirmed bull market.”
“If Bitcoin was to do exactly what it did in 2018, if it was to drop below this indicator by about 25% to 30%, that could take us as low as $40,000.”
“I think that the base case right now is still one of a regular macro bear market that ends in October or November. That is the base case right now.”
VOID
BTC ▼ → $48,000
“And $48,000 does look dramatically more likely if we are going to be continuing this bear market.”
“if we break above these levels, we are at least taking steps in the right direction towards a bull market.”
“it makes sense to assume that we will be continuing downwards until around October or November, which is what the cycle suggests”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $35,000
“this chart actually says we should be reaching somewhere in the mid-30s by that point.”
HIT
BTC ▲ → $83,000
“We can say with certainty that for Bitcoin to transform into a 100% bullish and macro bull market, the $83,000 barrier needs to be broken.”
“I happen to be bearish on the market, so I do think the price will go down from here.”
“So, in order for us to take a step in a bullish direction, I'm looking at a break above $71,000, which would be the Ichimoku cloud baseline.”
“The data at this point still points straight towards the mid-30s.”
MISS
ETH ▼
“it is very reasonable to think that Ethereum could fall below its 2022 low.”
HIT
BTC ▲ → $83,000
“to turn a bear market into a bull market, you need to see a higher high. It's true, and it will happen for about $83,000.”
“I think it's still possible, okay? And I'll tell you why. I don't think it's certain. I don't think it's guaranteed. It doesn't need to happen. Ultimately, I'm a believer in the four-year cycle. The four-year cycle doesn't really care where Bitcoin goes. It cares how Bitcoin bottoms and when Bitcoin's bottoms, not the price of the Bitcoin bottom. But basically, a drop downwards from this price region to something like $36,000 is a 44% drop over the course of 90 days, okay?”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $34,000
“Looking at the trends within this cycle, they indicate at this stage the possibility of the price dropping to between $32,000 and $36,000.”
“Since we started July with a significant decline, the appearance of a green candle in July could mean the price will end at 62,000.”
“And the cycle says we continue downwards into October.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $34,000
“pointing towards the same price target of $32,000 to $36,000 at the end of the cyclical deadline, which is going to be in October 2026. I think that is my base case at this point.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“And I think that that parabolic breakout of the four-year cycle will occur when diminished returns gets too significant for the cycle to hold.”
“And if history continues to repeat and copy 2022, we will, of course, continue downwards on Bitcoin.”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $32,000
“In the bear market, this channel is expecting a bear market bottom of $32,000. Let's just assume that happens.”
HIT
BTC ▼
“And given the short-term data showing weakness here, it's very plausible that the 750-day trend is continuing, it's very plausible that Bitcoin will continue downwards here.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $36,000
“We're still basically on track to be reaching $36,000 in October, 2026.”
MISS
BTC ▲
“I think it will happen within May. I think it will happen most likely within the first half of May,”
“as of right now, I do expect a drop within the month of May. Obviously, I'm not one for making big predictions. I'm more about reacting. But at this point, the data is quite clear. We break $80,000. That changes.”
“Let's just say the 20th of October. It's not going to be exact. It's a vague date. And now we know a likely price point where Bitcoin could bottom as well. Let's just go ahead and plug in $34,000.”
HIT
BTC ▼
“When I look at the short-term chart and I look at Bitcoin attacking $80,000, I don't see the bullishness that a lot of people see.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $26,000
“If we were to continue at the current trajectory downwards until October, 2026, which is when we expect the bottom to be as per the four-year cycle, we'd be bottoming at around 26K.”
VOID
BTC ▼
“I do think based on short-term and medium-term analysis, the probability that the bounce is over, the probability that the top is in or will be in at under $80,000 is actually quite high.”
HIT
BTC ▼ → $60,000
“So far, we are in a macro downwards trend, and so the break of $60,000 looks more likely than not.”
“$36,000 price target I've been talking about, or the scenario that I've been talking about does make actually a lot of sense.”
“We've got about 5 days left for not only a drop to start, but 5 days left for us to reach the bottom of the next macro range.”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $50,500
“I personally think it would be somewhere between around $48,000 and $53,000 for various reasons, which have outlined on this channel multiple times.”
OPEN
BTC ▼
“I remain a strict believer, a firm believer, that we're going to be bottoming out in October, 2026 until something forces me to change that opinion.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $36,000
“I think we're going to 36,000, this bear market or even lower than that, right? $32,000 to $36,000 in October.”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $53,000
“And, you know, the way this would end is obviously we continue downwards and break down below 60,000 into our new range, which would likely be around $53,000.”
“We do know, yeah, it's probably going to happen over the course of the next month or so, just by intuition.”
“if I'm forced at gunpoint to decide where Bitcoin would bottom in this bear market, I would still say somewhere between 32 and 38,000 dollars.”
VOID
BTC ▼
“the date that the four-year cycle suggests the bottom will be planted in the bear market is going to be October 2026”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $53,000
“I still think the case for a drop down to $53,000 within the month of late March, maybe April, is very much on the table.”
“we need to trust the one thing, that there's no examples of anything ever failing at all, which is the four-year cycle, the four-year cycle that so far suggests that Bitcoin is in a regular bear market”
“I suspect that the next price range Bitcoin will inhabit will be around the $53,000 to $58,000 support region.”
“I'm even more confident in my broader macro outlook of us being in a macro bear market that will end with the four-year cycle.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $36,000
“I'll be discussing the $36,000 bottom scenario for this cycle”
MISS
BTC ▼
“I think the likely scenario is we go downwards within the month of March.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $34,000
“we should be buying 50% at an October retest specifically of a certain region that I think is likely to be the bottom, which would be $32 to $36,000”
MISS
BTC ▲ → $80,000
“They're macrobased scenarios. Right now, within this range of 60 to 80, there's nothing macro here.”
“We break 60,000, we'll go down to 53K. That's the next target.”
“And if we plug in the cyclical bottom date range expectation, that would be October 2026. And the price of this channel in October 2026 would be around $36,000.”
MISS
BTC ▼
“And obviously, it suggests we should go lower before we see any sort of bottom.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $36,000
“Let's just say Bitcoin goes down to $36,000 in the bear market, which is an argument I've made a couple of times now.”
“And if we were to lose this region entirely, we'd be dropping right down to around $53,000 as the volume profile very clearly suggests.”
“a specific target of around 32 to 36,000, which I see as a very possible target. Not a certain target, not something I'm betting the chickens on.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $21,000
“a logical extension of that trajectory downwards that reaches October, 2026 would be Bitcoin reaching $21,000 in October, 2026.”
“If we know the date of the bottom as per 4-year cycle of October this year, we can simply plug in where the price would be. It would be about $35,000 in October this year.”
“Again, we lose that level at 69. We start crashing down into the mid-60s.”
“If we're going to be copying 2022, we continue chopping here for a certain period of time before going downwards.”
“And if we plug in that October bottom date range estimate into this channel, which has never failed, by the way, we would get a $36,000 Bitcoin in October.”
HIT
BTC ▼ → $74,000
“the major level that Bitcoin is targeting upon this breakdown is going to be around 74,000, maybe slightly higher.”
“If Bitcoin went up to that level and rejected from, showed signs of weakness and rejected from a 200-day simple moving average as well as that critical resistance block, yes, that would be a prime time opportunity for shorting.”
“If we see the bottom on October 2026, all we need to do is extrapolate the bottom side of this channel forward and see that that would line up with a price point of around $36,000”
“In our last cycle, this exact structure led to a drop to the downside. Will it do so again? Time will tell, but that's certainly what the pattern suggests.”
“And we seem to be moving to the downside right now, which means we are likely to see a bear market unless proved otherwise.”
“So long as Bitcoin is above this 100 exponential moving average, it is in dead cat bounce territory. And as you can see by looking at 2022, dead cat bounce territory is notoriously choppy.”
“That plausible roadmap essentially brings us to about $36,000 in October 2026.”
“If it can do this basically to simplify if it can just break massively to the upside here and continue that momentum momentum into all-time highs it would eventually break the cycle.”
“If it takes us to that level that will be a clear rejection zone through which Bitcoin will go downwards.”
OPEN
BTC ▼ → $36,000
“the cycle says the bottom will be in October 2026. And this logarithmic regression channel extrapolated forward says that bottom will be at about $36,000.”
“I think we're probably in a bare market. I think the fourear cycle is probably still alive and I think we probably will continue downwards into 2026 until proven otherwise”
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