Оценка C: из 18 прогнозов, где Wolves of Crypto сам назвал срок, цель достигнута в 17% случаев. Через месяц после каждого направленного прогноза цена двигалась в указанную сторону в 42% случаев (53 прогнозов). Каждый прогноз ниже с цитатой, датой и ценой.
“Если мы достигнем минимума $48,000,, как видно по этой красной линии, мы на самом деле очень близко к моменту, когда будем значительно отставать от графика. Значит, падение должно произойти скоро.”
“Я думаю, что базовый сценарий сейчас всё ещё представляет собой обычный макро-медвежий рынок, который заканчивается в октябре или ноябре. Это базовый сценарий сейчас.”
“I think it's still possible, okay? And I'll tell you why. I don't think it's certain. I don't think it's guaranteed. It doesn't need to happen. Ultimately, I'm a believer in the four-year cycle. The four-year cycle doesn't really care where Bitcoin goes. It cares how Bitcoin bottoms and when Bitcoin's bottoms, not the price of the Bitcoin bottom. But basically, a drop downwards from this price region to something like $36,000 is a 44% drop over the course of 90 days, okay?”
“pointing towards the same price target of $32,000 to $36,000 at the end of the cyclical deadline, which is going to be in October 2026. I think that is my base case at this point.”
“И учитывая краткосрочные данные, показывающие слабость здесь, вполне вероятно, что 750-дневной тренд продолжится, вполне вероятно, что биткоин продолжит движение вниз здесь.”
цена тогда $78,148 → $66,329 · -15.1% · смотрите 3:53
“на данный момент я ожидаю падение в течение мая. Очевидно, я не из тех, кто делает крупные прогнозы. Я больше про реакцию. Но в этот момент данные довольно ясны. Мы пробиваем $80,000. Это меняет дело.”
“Let's just say the 20th of October. It's not going to be exact. It's a vague date. And now we know a likely price point where Bitcoin could bottom as well. Let's just go ahead and plug in $34,000.”
“If we were to continue at the current trajectory downwards until October, 2026, which is when we expect the bottom to be as per the four-year cycle, we'd be bottoming at around 26K.”
“Я действительно думаю, основываясь на краткосрочном и среднесрочном анализе, вероятность, что отскок закончен, вероятность, что вершина уже вписана или будет вписана ниже $80,000, на самом деле довольно высока.”
“И вы знаете, как это закончится — очевидно, мы продолжим движение вниз и пробьём ниже 60,000 в наш новый диапазон, который, вероятно, будет около $53,000.”
цена тогда $66,011 → $60,029 · -9.1% · смотрите 6:55
“we need to trust the one thing, that there's no examples of anything ever failing at all, which is the four-year cycle, the four-year cycle that so far suggests that Bitcoin is in a regular bear market”
“And if we plug in the cyclical bottom date range expectation, that would be October 2026. And the price of this channel in October 2026 would be around $36,000.”
“If we know the date of the bottom as per 4-year cycle of October this year, we can simply plug in where the price would be. It would be about $35,000 in October this year.”
“And if we plug in that October bottom date range estimate into this channel, which has never failed, by the way, we would get a $36,000 Bitcoin in October.”
“If Bitcoin went up to that level and rejected from, showed signs of weakness and rejected from a 200-day simple moving average as well as that critical resistance block, yes, that would be a prime time opportunity for shorting.”
“If we see the bottom on October 2026, all we need to do is extrapolate the bottom side of this channel forward and see that that would line up with a price point of around $36,000”
“In our last cycle, this exact structure led to a drop to the downside. Will it do so again? Time will tell, but that's certainly what the pattern suggests.”
“So long as Bitcoin is above this 100 exponential moving average, it is in dead cat bounce territory. And as you can see by looking at 2022, dead cat bounce territory is notoriously choppy.”
цена тогда $90,641 → $95,414 · +5.3% · смотрите 1:33
“If it can do this basically to simplify if it can just break massively to the upside here and continue that momentum momentum into all-time highs it would eventually break the cycle.”
цена тогда $87,648 → $84,260 · -3.9% · смотрите 5:40
“the cycle says the bottom will be in October 2026. And this logarithmic regression channel extrapolated forward says that bottom will be at about $36,000.”
“I think we're probably in a bare market. I think the fourear cycle is probably still alive and I think we probably will continue downwards into 2026 until proven otherwise”
цена тогда $88,659 → ещё открыт · инвалидация $100,000 · смотрите 2:39
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