Adam Livingston prediction accuracy
—
2 of 10
—
80%
all resolved (10)
85%
30-day direction (54)
85
calls logged
75
open right now
0
flips (30d)
Current stance
▲ BTC → $96,600
Sep 25 · open
Is Adam Livingston accurate?
Not graded yet: 2 of 10 resolved calls with a self-set deadline (10 resolved in total). A month after each directional call, the price had moved the way they said 85% of the time (54 calls). Every call below is quoted, dated and priced.
The record
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $96,600
“Median return after, applied to today's $84.4K: 1M: +14% → ~$96.6K”
“For a Bitcoin treasury company underwriting a bullish thesis through 2030, the price at which it adds preferred-funded Bitcoin exposure can have an enormous effect on the returns for the common stock shareholders.”
“If gold stays flat at $4,338 and BTC merely recovers that ratio, the implied Bitcoin price is $110,145.”
“And in over 12 months, I'm just saying, that's a 121% median 12-month return.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“And the results just get insane. If you want to know the nine-month forward median return number, a 90% return, that's almost a doubling of the Bitcoin price. We're knocking on the door of 150k Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“After six months, we're talking about a 41% return. That would be about 180 days.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $90,000
“Now, the median return over three months only, which is about 90 days from the analog start here, that's about an 18.6% median three-month return. If you do the math, that gets us in the neighborhood of 90k Bitcoin.”
“I think we are just getting started because I think that Bitcoin is going to have a killer next couple of years.”
“If the golden cross happens again with a modern history median return, that implies $136,000 Bitcoin within 12 months.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $162,000
“One year from today in September of 2027, it is $162,000 per Bitcoin.”
“I can't be anything but bullish, especially when you just consider that's almost two years from the all-time high already.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Adam, 150k Bitcoin, that's way too good to be true. Wrong. It is inevitable.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“but I think Bitcoin will probably go north of $100k, maybe the all-time high, perhaps $150k, or $200k over the next year.”
“Silver is in striking distance. So is NVIDIA. I think that those are both achievable definitely over the next couple of years.”
“Buying Bitcoin or MSTR, which will likely be the greatest growth assets over the next five years, in my humble, not financial advice opinion.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $400,000
“I did a $400,000 manual ending Bitcoin price, okay? Now, is that going to happen? No idea. That's what I'm modeling.”
HIT
BTC ▲
“Because Bitcoin is going up forever, obviously. Well, there's a few things.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $140,000
“And if we just make the return to the Bitcoin gold ratio that we saw in October when Bitcoin hit the US dollar all-time high, that would imply a close to a doubling of the price, $140,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $168,000
“It would imply in about a year and a half, $168,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $105,000
“A median path across all of 2015, 2019, 2022, when we have hit that exact same level, $105,000 Bitcoin in six months.”
HIT
BTC ▲
“Bitcoin is going to the moon. So is MSTR.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“If Bitcoin goes to $1 million over 10 years, I broke down the math in that video that that's like raising equity at a 10x multiple.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“By the time Bitcoin hits 100K, MSTR will outperform Bitcoin over that time horizon.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $458,000
“Now, if you just take the median return of Bitcoin, that would mean that it would take Bitcoin to $458,000 by June of 2029, with just the median return.”
“I think that if you guys are watching the channel, you probably think there's a decent chance Bitcoin will be $1 million in 10 years. Personally, I definitely think that's a possibility.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“Now let's just assume that Bitcoin doubles over this period. So, you know, by August of 2029, Bitcoin only goes back to its all time high. I don't think that's too crazy to think.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $179,000
“and the 24-month median price at around $179,000 per Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $142,000
“the 18-month median price at around $142,000”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $101,000
“a 12-month median price around $101,000 Bitcoin right here”
HIT
BTC ▲ → $76,000
“The raw state condition model produced a six-month median price at around $76,000 Bitcoin”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“I think Bitcoin is going to go up over the next year and a half. I really think that's going to be the case.”
“The median forward Bitcoin return from these 84 historical observations, whenever we've been at this premium to that 200 week moving average is a plus 267.8% return over 2.7 years. The median multiple is a 3.68. So the median implied Bitcoin price is $238,000 with a 100% win rate whenever you've bought Bitcoin from this level of premium to that 200 week moving average.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $250,000
“August of 2028, that would be over a quarter million Bitcoin two years from now.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $153,000
“The median reversion path here is in one year, this median case of that percentage return, that would imply 153,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $217,000
“my primary underwriting case that I'm looking at is actually the 217,000 per Bitcoin number. Because remember, that clustering of those results all around that 18 months level”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $124,728
“What would this mean if we get back to the Bitcoin price all time high when we hit the all time high closing price at $124,728 per Bitcoin?”
HIT
BTC ▲
“Bitcoin is inevitable. Victory is upon us, and therefore, strategy is going to win.”
“if Bitcoin merely rhymes with 2023, you get some pretty crazy price targets here. A $150,000 Bitcoin price to $167,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“I think Bitcoin is going to a million dollars, not only 300K like this scenario right here.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $200,000
“But Bitcoin, let's say it goes from $62,900 to $200,000 over 24 months. That means Bitcoin hits $200,000 in July or August of 2028.”
“Let's say that Bitcoin goes to 500k in the next four years.”
“In this scenario, Bitcoin goes to 300k.”
“Let's say that Bitcoin doesn't go to a quarter million dollars. Let's say it only goes to 200,000.”
“So the Bitcoin price goes to $250K. That's what I have as my number one input.”
“I do think it's going to go up over long periods of time.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $300,000
“Now, on top of that, I do have them issuing $15 billion of STRC. That's the preferred capital. Now, if they do that linearly on the way up to 300k Bitcoin every single month until December 2028, that means they only buy over 100,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Bitcoin drastically undershoots that long-term trend line. We only go back up to 150k Bitcoin over the next two and a half years.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“I went ahead and modeled out $1 million Bitcoin in eight years.”
“If Bitcoin merely reclaims its previous Bitcoin priced in gold high with the gold price totally unchanged from today, that means Bitcoin is around $162,500.”
“And that is bullish because if demand merely reopens up, the ETFs, the macro liquidity, the cost basis recapture, all of these things start to happen, maybe the next 12 months can become violently asymmetric.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“Bitcoin's going to a million dollars. They're going to have 1 million Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“I assume that Bitcoin goes back to $100,000 that you can see right here.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“So we're going with $1 million by 2036.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“And third, I do think that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, 58% chance by month 18, but 72% within 24 months.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $750,000
“Now what I am actually using for the conservative Bitcoin price five years from now, July of 2031. This is a five year scenario. Bitcoin is going to be $750,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $169,287
“By September 2027, which is that first convertible debt put date, the median Bitcoin return is 160.4%, which would imply a Bitcoin price of $169,287.”
“Let's be a little bit more bullish. Let's say Bitcoin goes to $200,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $175,000
“I don't think $175,000 Bitcoin a year from now is some crazy pothead assumption.”
“If Bitcoin goes to $150,000 a year from now, MSTR finishes at a slight 1.2x MNAV.”
HIT
BTC ▲ → $70,000
“If you are interested in taking your trapped home equity to buy Bitcoin before Bitcoin goes back above $70,000, it is showing some strength lately.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $400,000
“Let's do a three-year projection. That'll be fun because that would be July of 2029. And I do have some people who get annoyed in my audience of, you know, Adam, you're being too bearish. Bitcoin is going to be higher. And I'm like, okay, well, sorry if you don't like my inputs, but let's just go with 400k being the Bitcoin price”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“let's just start with a one year projection just to kind of illustrate what I'm talking about. And let's just say that Bitcoin goes to $150K over the next year.”
“from today, and then 24 months would be 346,000.”
“So this median of the medians number with those tolerance bands, this would imply if history rhymes, that median return would mean 160k Bitcoin from today”
MISS
BTC ▲
“In my humble opinion, I think Bitcoin's going up forever.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“Horizon is standing by to help you do so right now before it runs back up to 100K.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $324,000
“It 5.5x's from today to hit 324k Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“So according to the median 365 day return from here, that's plus 71%”
“18 months, 226K, and then 24 months would be a 324K Bitcoin price”
“nine months back over the six-figure Bitcoin price, 12 months is 131K Bitcoin, 18 months, 226K”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“the worst result was a positive return of 98.6%, which is almost double the price of Bitcoin, which would exceed $100,000 from its current price”
MISS
BTC ▼
“It will collapse by 50% right before your eyes, and you can say that all of this is madness.”
“A year and a half is 188K in 24 months is a 253K Bitcoin based on history.”
“Six months would be a 113K. Nine to 12 months, you're in that 137K to 135K range.”
“Just looking, the three month return would imply an 85K Bitcoin price.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“I cannot be anything but bullish at these levels.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $200,000
“hopefully Bitcoin is 200k by then that to me would be a decent mean reversion in the asset. There is no guarantees that Bitcoin will be at $200,000 a year from now.”
HIT
BTC ▲
“Because I'm a Bitcoin bull, I think Bitcoin's going to 10 million.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“after 12 months, that's when we would shoot past the all time high on a historical median basis, not financial advice.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“After six months, there was a 50% Bitcoin price return, which would be about 100,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“Bitcoin is the superior long-term play because Bitcoin sits underneath the question every investor must answer. What do you trust as your unit of account?”
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