—belum bernilai: butuh 10 prediksi terecahkan dengan tenggat sendiri (2 sejauh ini)
2 tepat0 meleset
80%
semua yang terselesaikan (10)
85%
arah 30 hari (54)
85
prediksi yang tercatat
75
masih terbuka sekarang
0
berubah pikiran (30 hr)
Posisi saat ini · 90 hari terakhir
▲ BTC → $96,600
25 Sep · terbuka
Apakah Adam Livingston akurat?
Belum dinilai: 2 dari 10 prediksi terselesaikan dengan tenggat sendiri (10 total terselesaikan). Sebulan setelah setiap prediksi arah, harga bergerak seperti yang dikatakan 85% kali (54 prediksi). Setiap prediksi di bawah dikutip, ditanggalkan, dan dihargai.
“Untuk perusahaan treasury Bitcoin yang meng-underwrite thesis bullish lewat 2030, harga di mana dia menambah eksposur Bitcoin yang didanai preferred bisa punya efek besar banget ke return untuk pemegang saham biasa.”
“Dan hasilnya justru menjadi gila. Jika Anda ingin tahu angka return median sembilan bulan ke depan, return 90%, itu hampir menggandakan harga Bitcoin. Kita sedang mengetuk pintu 150 ribu Bitcoin.”
“Sekarang, return median selama tiga bulan saja, yang sekitar 90 hari dari awal analog di sini, itu sekitar return median tiga bulan sebesar 18.6%. Jika Anda menghitung, itu akan membawa kita ke kisaran sekitar 90 ribu Bitcoin.”
“Dan jika kita hanya membuat kembali rasio Bitcoin emas yang kita lihat di Oktober ketika Bitcoin mencapai rekor tertinggi dolar AS, itu akan mengimplikasikan peningkatan harga yang hampir menggandakan, $140,000 Bitcoin.”
“Now, if you just take the median return of Bitcoin, that would mean that it would take Bitcoin to $458,000 by June of 2029, with just the median return.”
“Saya pikir kalau kalian nonton kanal ini, kalian mungkin pikir ada peluang layak Bitcoin jadi $1 juta dalam 10 tahun. Pribadi, saya pasti pikir itu mungkin.”
“Now let's just assume that Bitcoin doubles over this period. So, you know, by August of 2029, Bitcoin only goes back to its all time high. I don't think that's too crazy to think.”
“The median forward Bitcoin return from these 84 historical observations, whenever we've been at this premium to that 200 week moving average is a plus 267.8% return over 2.7 years. The median multiple is a 3.68. So the median implied Bitcoin price is $238,000 with a 100% win rate whenever you've bought Bitcoin from this level of premium to that 200 week moving average.”
“my primary underwriting case that I'm looking at is actually the 217,000 per Bitcoin number. Because remember, that clustering of those results all around that 18 months level”
“Now, on top of that, I do have them issuing $15 billion of STRC. That's the preferred capital. Now, if they do that linearly on the way up to 300k Bitcoin every single month until December 2028, that means they only buy over 100,000 Bitcoin.”
“If Bitcoin merely reclaims its previous Bitcoin priced in gold high with the gold price totally unchanged from today, that means Bitcoin is around $162,500.”
“And that is bullish because if demand merely reopens up, the ETFs, the macro liquidity, the cost basis recapture, all of these things start to happen, maybe the next 12 months can become violently asymmetric.”
“Now what I am actually using for the conservative Bitcoin price five years from now, July of 2031. This is a five year scenario. Bitcoin is going to be $750,000.”
“By September 2027, which is that first convertible debt put date, the median Bitcoin return is 160.4%, which would imply a Bitcoin price of $169,287.”
“Let's do a three-year projection. That'll be fun because that would be July of 2029. And I do have some people who get annoyed in my audience of, you know, Adam, you're being too bearish. Bitcoin is going to be higher. And I'm like, okay, well, sorry if you don't like my inputs, but let's just go with 400k being the Bitcoin price”
“let's just start with a one year projection just to kind of illustrate what I'm talking about. And let's just say that Bitcoin goes to $150K over the next year.”
“So this median of the medians number with those tolerance bands, this would imply if history rhymes, that median return would mean 160k Bitcoin from today”
OPENBTC ▲ → $200,000· 23 Jun 2026 · jangka waktu 365 hr
“hopefully Bitcoin is 200k by then that to me would be a decent mean reversion in the asset. There is no guarantees that Bitcoin will be at $200,000 a year from now.”
“Bitcoin is the superior long-term play because Bitcoin sits underneath the question every investor must answer. What do you trust as your unit of account?”