Adam Livingston precisión de predicciones
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2 de 10
—
80%
todos resueltos (10)
85%
dirección a 30 días (54)
85
predicciones registradas
75
abiertas ahora mismo
0
cambios de opinión (30 d)
Postura actual
▲ BTC → $96,600
25 sep · abierta
¿Es Adam Livingston preciso?
No calificado aún: 2 de 10 predicciones resueltas con un plazo autoestablecido (10 resueltas en total). Un mes después de cada llamada direccional, el precio se había movido como ellos dijeron 85% de las veces (54 predicciones). Cada predicción de abajo está citada, fechada y preciada.
El historial
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $96,600
“Retorno mediano después, aplicado al $84.4K de hoy: 1M: +14% → ~$96.6K”
“Para una empresa con tesorería en Bitcoin que suscribe una tesis alcista hasta 2030, el precio al que añade exposición a Bitcoin financiada con preferentes puede tener un efecto enorme en los rendimientos para los accionistas de acciones comunes.”
“Si el oro se mantiene plano en $4,338 y BTC simplemente recupera esa ratio, el precio implícito de Bitcoin es $110,145.”
“Y en más de 12 meses, solo digo, que es un retorno mediano de 121% en 12 meses.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Y los resultados se vuelven locos. Si quieres saber el número de retorno mediano a nueve meses, un retorno de 90%, eso casi duplica el precio de Bitcoin. Estamos llamando a la puerta de los 150k de Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“Después de seis meses, estamos hablando de un retorno de 41%. Eso sería aproximadamente 180 días.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $90,000
“Ahora, el retorno mediano en tres meses solo, que es aproximadamente 90 días desde el inicio analógico aquí, eso es aproximadamente un retorno mediano de tres meses del 18.6%%. Si haces las cuentas, eso nos lleva al entorno de 90k Bitcoin.”
“I think we are just getting started because I think that Bitcoin is going to have a killer next couple of years.”
“If the golden cross happens again with a modern history median return, that implies $136,000 Bitcoin within 12 months.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $162,000
“One year from today in September of 2027, it is $162,000 per Bitcoin.”
“I can't be anything but bullish, especially when you just consider that's almost two years from the all-time high already.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Adam, 150k Bitcoin, eso es demasiado bueno para ser verdad. Está mal. Es inevitable.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“pero creo que Bitcoin probablemente subirá por encima de $100k, quizás el máximo histórico, tal vez $150k, o $200k durante el próximo año.”
“La plata está al alcance de un golpe. También NVIDIA. Creo que ambos son definitivamente alcanzables en los próximos años.”
“Buying Bitcoin or MSTR, which will likely be the greatest growth assets over the next five years, in my humble, not financial advice opinion.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $400,000
“I did a $400,000 manual ending Bitcoin price, okay? Now, is that going to happen? No idea. That's what I'm modeling.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲
“Because Bitcoin is going up forever, obviously. Well, there's a few things.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $140,000
“Y si simplemente regresamos a la relación Bitcoin-oro que vimos en octubre cuando Bitcoin alcanzó su máximo histórico en dólares estadounidenses, eso implicaría un aumento cercano al doble del precio, $140,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $168,000
“It would imply in about a year and a half, $168,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $105,000
“Una ruta media a través de todos 2015, 2019, 2022, cuando hayamos tocado ese mismo nivel exacto, $105,000 Bitcoin en seis meses.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲
“Bitcoin is going to the moon. So is MSTR.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“Si Bitcoin llega a $1 millones en 10 años, desglosé las matemáticas en ese video y eso es como levantar capital a un múltiplo de 10x.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“Para cuando Bitcoin alcance 100K, MSTR superará a Bitcoin en ese horizonte temporal.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $458,000
“Now, if you just take the median return of Bitcoin, that would mean that it would take Bitcoin to $458,000 by June of 2029, with just the median return.”
“Creo que si ustedes están viendo el canal, probablemente piensen que hay una probabilidad decente de que Bitcoin llegue a $1 millones en 10 años. Personalmente, definitivamente creo que es una posibilidad.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“Now let's just assume that Bitcoin doubles over this period. So, you know, by August of 2029, Bitcoin only goes back to its all time high. I don't think that's too crazy to think.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $179,000
“and the 24-month median price at around $179,000 per Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $142,000
“the 18-month median price at around $142,000”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $101,000
“a 12-month median price around $101,000 Bitcoin right here”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲ → $76,000
“The raw state condition model produced a six-month median price at around $76,000 Bitcoin”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“I think Bitcoin is going to go up over the next year and a half. I really think that's going to be the case.”
“The median forward Bitcoin return from these 84 historical observations, whenever we've been at this premium to that 200 week moving average is a plus 267.8% return over 2.7 years. The median multiple is a 3.68. So the median implied Bitcoin price is $238,000 with a 100% win rate whenever you've bought Bitcoin from this level of premium to that 200 week moving average.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $250,000
“Agosto de 2028, eso sería más de un cuarto de millón de Bitcoin dentro de dos años.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $153,000
“The median reversion path here is in one year, this median case of that percentage return, that would imply 153,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $217,000
“my primary underwriting case that I'm looking at is actually the 217,000 per Bitcoin number. Because remember, that clustering of those results all around that 18 months level”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $124,728
“What would this mean if we get back to the Bitcoin price all time high when we hit the all time high closing price at $124,728 per Bitcoin?”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲
“Bitcoin is inevitable. Victory is upon us, and therefore, strategy is going to win.”
“if Bitcoin merely rhymes with 2023, you get some pretty crazy price targets here. A $150,000 Bitcoin price to $167,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“Creo que Bitcoin va a ir a un millón de dólares, no solo 300K como este escenario aquí mismo.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $200,000
“Pero Bitcoin, digamos que va de $62,900 a $200,000 en 24 meses. Eso significa que Bitcoin alcanza $200,000 en julio o agosto de 2028.”
“Digamos que Bitcoin llega a 500k en los próximos cuatro años.”
“In this scenario, Bitcoin goes to 300k.”
“Digamos que Bitcoin no llega a un cuarto de millón de dólares. Digamos que solo llega a 200,000.”
“So the Bitcoin price goes to $250K. That's what I have as my number one input.”
“I do think it's going to go up over long periods of time.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $300,000
“Now, on top of that, I do have them issuing $15 billion of STRC. That's the preferred capital. Now, if they do that linearly on the way up to 300k Bitcoin every single month until December 2028, that means they only buy over 100,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Bitcoin se queda muy por debajo de esa línea de tendencia a largo plazo. Solo volveremos a subir hasta 150k de Bitcoin en los próximos dos años y medio.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“Adelanté y modelé $1 millones de Bitcoin en ocho años.”
“If Bitcoin merely reclaims its previous Bitcoin priced in gold high with the gold price totally unchanged from today, that means Bitcoin is around $162,500.”
“And that is bullish because if demand merely reopens up, the ETFs, the macro liquidity, the cost basis recapture, all of these things start to happen, maybe the next 12 months can become violently asymmetric.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“Bitcoin va a llegar a un millón de dólares. Van a tener 1 millones de Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“Asumo que Bitcoin vuelve a $100,000 que puedes ver aquí mismo.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,000,000
“So we're going with $1 million by 2036.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“And third, I do think that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, 58% chance by month 18, but 72% within 24 months.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $750,000
“Now what I am actually using for the conservative Bitcoin price five years from now, July of 2031. This is a five year scenario. Bitcoin is going to be $750,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $169,287
“By September 2027, which is that first convertible debt put date, the median Bitcoin return is 160.4%, which would imply a Bitcoin price of $169,287.”
“Seamos un poco más alcistas. Digamos que Bitcoin llega a $200,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $175,000
“I don't think $175,000 Bitcoin a year from now is some crazy pothead assumption.”
“Si Bitcoin llega a $150,000 dentro de un año, MSTR termina con un leve 1.2x MNAV.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲ → $70,000
“Si estás interesado en usar tu equity inmobiliario atrapado para comprar Bitcoin antes de que Bitcoin vuelva a subir por encima de $70,000,, está mostrando algo de fuerza últimamente.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $400,000
“Let's do a three-year projection. That'll be fun because that would be July of 2029. And I do have some people who get annoyed in my audience of, you know, Adam, you're being too bearish. Bitcoin is going to be higher. And I'm like, okay, well, sorry if you don't like my inputs, but let's just go with 400k being the Bitcoin price”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“let's just start with a one year projection just to kind of illustrate what I'm talking about. And let's just say that Bitcoin goes to $150K over the next year.”
“from today, and then 24 months would be 346,000.”
“So this median of the medians number with those tolerance bands, this would imply if history rhymes, that median return would mean 160k Bitcoin from today”
FALLO
BTC ▲
“In my humble opinion, I think Bitcoin's going up forever.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“Horizon está listo para ayudarte a hacerlo ahora mismo antes de que vuelva a subir hasta 100K.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $324,000
“It 5.5x's from today to hit 324k Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“So according to the median 365 day return from here, that's plus 71%”
“18 months, 226K, and then 24 months would be a 324K Bitcoin price”
“nine months back over the six-figure Bitcoin price, 12 months is 131K Bitcoin, 18 months, 226K”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“the worst result was a positive return of 98.6%, which is almost double the price of Bitcoin, which would exceed $100,000 from its current price”
FALLO
BTC ▼
“It will collapse by 50% right before your eyes, and you can say that all of this is madness.”
“Un año y medio es 188K en 24 meses es un 253K Bitcoin basado en la historia.”
“Six months would be a 113K. Nine to 12 months, you're in that 137K to 135K range.”
“Solo mirando, el retorno de tres meses implicaría un precio de Bitcoin de 85K.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“I cannot be anything but bullish at these levels.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $200,000
“hopefully Bitcoin is 200k by then that to me would be a decent mean reversion in the asset. There is no guarantees that Bitcoin will be at $200,000 a year from now.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲
“Because I'm a Bitcoin bull, I think Bitcoin's going to 10 million.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“after 12 months, that's when we would shoot past the all time high on a historical median basis, not financial advice.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $100,000
“Después de seis meses, hubo un retorno de precio de 50% Bitcoin, que serían unos 100,000 Bitcoin.”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“Bitcoin is the superior long-term play because Bitcoin sits underneath the question every investor must answer. What do you trust as your unit of account?”
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