On-Chain Mind prediction accuracy
C
10–19%
15%
26%
all resolved (33)
35%
30-day direction (23)
42
calls logged
8
open right now
0
flips (30d)
Current stance
▲ BTC
Sep 22 · open
Is On-Chain Mind accurate?
Grade C: on 13 predictions where On-Chain Mind named the deadline themselves, the target was hit 15% of the time. A month after each directional call, the price had moved the way they said 35% of the time (23 calls). Every call below is quoted, dated and priced.
The record
“my base case certainly remains that we're more likely in a bull market than not.”
“Bitcoin is testing the 0.382 Fib. Break it, and $92K is next.”
HIT
BTC ▲
“So for me, the overall trend is definitely still bullish until proven otherwise and invalidated.”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $62,000
“And what we can see is that the median outcome that is expected given these echoes, is actually a 3.1% decline in price over the next three weeks, or roughly bringing us to $62,000.”
“But if we start to see an extended period where the hash ribbons genuinely aren't printing anymore, then that is a really good sign that the network health is finally coming back again.”
“in September of 2029, it would put a potential peak at $370,000, which might sound optimistic, but that's only a 500 ish percent return.”
MISS
BTC ▼
“So although the downside trend is absolutely real, and I do believe there's probably more weakness to come.”
“The key now is whether Bitcoin can hold this $78,000 to $79,000 zone as support. And if it can, then this starts to look less like a bear market rally and more like the early stage of a proper recovery.”
MISS
BTC ▼
“Prices rallied again, sure, but it wouldn't be unusual to see it roll over again and test lower levels.”
“the model suggests that for 50% of the supply to be in loss, Bitcoin would need to be around $63,000 today.”
“I think we've got one or two more flushes ahead of us.”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $50,000
“So when people ask whether a $50,000 floor is realistic, the answer is yes, absolutely. And the data really supports it.”
“The first scenario is that we experience a 100-day style capitulation event. And if that's the case, then in roughly another 15 days, or about two weeks, we'd expect the market to begin rallying again. And”
“So if the stable coin year-on-year growth remains positive, and if the liquidity flow eventually turns back up positive, the path of least resistance for here over the next couple of months definitely remains higher.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,200,000
“with the bear case still coming in at around $1.2 million.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,400,000
“And extend that out to 2035, and the base case puts Bitcoin at around $1.4 million,”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $330,000
“And under an extreme bear case, it's still roughly $330,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $400,000
“Under the base case scenario, the fair value for Bitcoin in 2030 is around $400,000.”
“But we're not there yet. We're holding it. And until that changes, the optimistic interpretation still stands.”
“However there is one scenario where I could see price dropping towards these mid $60,000 levels.”
HIT
BTC ▲ → $93,000
“I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin push towards the upper half of the trading channel, testing that $93,000 level, and potentially moving beyond that if buying continues steadily.”
“And that true market mean is sitting around $81,000 at the moment. So if we do get some months of choppy, frustrating range bound price action, that's the area I'd expect us to keep gravitating towards”
“If $126,000 was the top, and I'm not definitely saying it was, but if that was the cycle peak and we slowly bled out from here, then the most extreme deviation target to the downside is $60,000.”
“And if that happens, my first primary target is the top of the 2024 consolidation phase, which lines up beautifully with the lower short-term holder cost band at around $72,000.”
“Yeah, I definitely think it could explode to the surprise a lot of people.”
HIT
BTC ▼ → $95,000
“I'm now stacking cash in anticipation of a potential breakdown to $95,000.”
“under a late stage blowoff top scenario that could place Bitcoin's peak between $199,000 and $272,000.”
“if this bull market continues in a classic fashion, meaning we get a proper euphoric phase like in all previous cycles, I'd expect Bitcoin to realistically trade somewhere between $174 and $243,000 within that time frame.”
“To me, these signals suggest that now could be a good time to consider a measured rotation from gold into Bitcoin.”
“if we assume that Bitcoin revisits its most recent all-time high of $125,000, and we assume a slight MNAV expansion”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“I don't think the current 75% long-term holder supply level marks the peak of this cycle. In my view, it seems way too early”
VOID
BTC ▲ → $145,000
“the 140 to 150,000 dollar band as the next upper target zone where I'd consider reducing my exposure.”
“I don't think $50,000 will be the next bare market bottom. I'd expect it to be quite a lot higher, more like $70,000 or potentially even $80,000.”
“it currently suggests that if the cycle plays out similar to previous ones, the peak is likely to occur around the $211,000 mark.”
“Combining this with other fundamental indicators tells us that while caution is always warranted, there's still room for growth before the next major price peak.”
MISS
ETH ▼
“My bet is that this rally will lose some steam in the coming weeks, but when that happens is anyone's guess.”
“And if we do get another euphoric price surge like we saw last year, the upper red region extends all the way to around $190,000 where a correction is pretty much almost inevitable.”
MISS
BTC ▲ → $131,000
“The upper boundary of this yellow band runs to about $131,000. We've seen price tap above this into the orange band multiple times already this cycle. So, I wouldn't be surprised if we revisited it again.”
MISS
BTC ▲
“That suggests to me that we've still got plenty of room to run and the true peak likely hasn't occurred yet.”
MISS
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Now, the final interesting bit from this earnings report is their prediction of the Bitcoin price hitting at least $150,000 by year end.”
MISS
BTC ▲
“So with this current green histogram print, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the next six months.”
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