On-Chain Mind precisión de predicciones
C
10–19%
15%
26%
todos resueltos (33)
35%
dirección a 30 días (23)
42
predicciones registradas
8
abiertas ahora mismo
0
cambios de opinión (30 d)
Postura actual
▲ BTC
22 sep · abierta
¿Es On-Chain Mind preciso?
Nota C: en 13 predicciones donde On-Chain Mind puso el plazo, se alcanzó el objetivo el 15% de las veces. Un mes después de cada predicción direccional, el precio se movió como dijeron el 35% de las veces (23 predicciones). Todas las predicciones a continuación están citadas, fechadas y con precio.
El historial
“mi caso base ciertamente sigue siendo que es más probable que estemos en un mercado alcista que no.”
“Bitcoin está probando el 0.382 Fib. Si lo rompe, $92K es lo siguiente.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲
“Así que para mí, la tendencia general es definitivamente alcista hasta que se demuestre lo contrario y se invalide.”
FALLO
BTC ▼ → $62,000
“Y lo que podemos ver es que el resultado mediano esperado dadas estas ecoes, es en realidad una caída de precio de 3.1% en las próximas tres semanas, o aproximadamente nos llevaría a $62,000.”
“But if we start to see an extended period where the hash ribbons genuinely aren't printing anymore, then that is a really good sign that the network health is finally coming back again.”
“in September of 2029, it would put a potential peak at $370,000, which might sound optimistic, but that's only a 500 ish percent return.”
FALLO
BTC ▼
“Así que aunque la tendencia a la baja es absolutamente real, y creo que probablemente venga más debilidad.”
“The key now is whether Bitcoin can hold this $78,000 to $79,000 zone as support. And if it can, then this starts to look less like a bear market rally and more like the early stage of a proper recovery.”
FALLO
BTC ▼
“Prices rallied again, sure, but it wouldn't be unusual to see it roll over again and test lower levels.”
“the model suggests that for 50% of the supply to be in loss, Bitcoin would need to be around $63,000 today.”
“I think we've got one or two more flushes ahead of us.”
FALLO
BTC ▼ → $50,000
“So when people ask whether a $50,000 floor is realistic, the answer is yes, absolutely. And the data really supports it.”
“The first scenario is that we experience a 100-day style capitulation event. And if that's the case, then in roughly another 15 days, or about two weeks, we'd expect the market to begin rallying again. And”
“So if the stable coin year-on-year growth remains positive, and if the liquidity flow eventually turns back up positive, the path of least resistance for here over the next couple of months definitely remains higher.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,200,000
“with the bear case still coming in at around $1.2 million.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,400,000
“And extend that out to 2035, and the base case puts Bitcoin at around $1.4 million,”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $330,000
“And under an extreme bear case, it's still roughly $330,000.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $400,000
“Under the base case scenario, the fair value for Bitcoin in 2030 is around $400,000.”
“But we're not there yet. We're holding it. And until that changes, the optimistic interpretation still stands.”
“However there is one scenario where I could see price dropping towards these mid $60,000 levels.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▲ → $93,000
“No me sorprendería ver a Bitcoin empujar hacia la mitad superior del canal de trading, probando ese nivel $93,000, y potencialmente moviéndose más allá si la compra continúa de forma estable.”
“And that true market mean is sitting around $81,000 at the moment. So if we do get some months of choppy, frustrating range bound price action, that's the area I'd expect us to keep gravitating towards”
“Si $126,000 fue el techo, y no estoy diciendo definitivamente que lo fue, pero si ese fue el pico del ciclo y lentamente sangramos desde aquí, entonces el objetivo más extremo de desviación a la baja es $60,000.”
“Y si eso ocurre, mi primer objetivo principal es la cima de la fase de consolidación de 2024, que coincide perfectamente con la banda inferior de costo de tenedores a corto plazo, alrededor de $72,000.”
“Yeah, I definitely think it could explode to the surprise a lot of people.”
ACIERTO
BTC ▼ → $95,000
“Ahora estoy acumulando efectivo en anticipación de una posible caída a $95,000.”
“under a late stage blowoff top scenario that could place Bitcoin's peak between $199,000 and $272,000.”
“if this bull market continues in a classic fashion, meaning we get a proper euphoric phase like in all previous cycles, I'd expect Bitcoin to realistically trade somewhere between $174 and $243,000 within that time frame.”
“To me, these signals suggest that now could be a good time to consider a measured rotation from gold into Bitcoin.”
“if we assume that Bitcoin revisits its most recent all-time high of $125,000, and we assume a slight MNAV expansion”
OPEN
BTC ▲
“I don't think the current 75% long-term holder supply level marks the peak of this cycle. In my view, it seems way too early”
NULA
BTC ▲ → $145,000
“the 140 to 150,000 dollar band as the next upper target zone where I'd consider reducing my exposure.”
“I don't think $50,000 will be the next bare market bottom. I'd expect it to be quite a lot higher, more like $70,000 or potentially even $80,000.”
“it currently suggests that if the cycle plays out similar to previous ones, the peak is likely to occur around the $211,000 mark.”
“Combining this with other fundamental indicators tells us that while caution is always warranted, there's still room for growth before the next major price peak.”
FALLO
ETH ▼
“My bet is that this rally will lose some steam in the coming weeks, but when that happens is anyone's guess.”
“Y si obtenemos otro aumento de precio eufórico como el que vimos el año pasado, la región roja superior se extiende hasta alrededor de $190,000, donde una corrección es prácticamente inevitable.”
FALLO
BTC ▲ → $131,000
“The upper boundary of this yellow band runs to about $131,000. We've seen price tap above this into the orange band multiple times already this cycle. So, I wouldn't be surprised if we revisited it again.”
FALLO
BTC ▲
“That suggests to me that we've still got plenty of room to run and the true peak likely hasn't occurred yet.”
FALLO
BTC ▲ → $150,000
“Ahora, el dato final interesante de este informe de ganancias es su predicción de que el precio de Bitcoin alcance al menos $150,000 para fin de año.”
FALLO
BTC ▲
“So with this current green histogram print, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the next six months.”
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