Crypto Insider prediction accuracy

“I think you must be smiling about this today, right? Yeah. Great. I'm happy for those guys. Good for them. Are you still bullish? I mean, does your bullish thesis hold? I'm still bullish. I'm not long that the, I don't, I don't see enough asymmetry in the trade, but I'm still bullish on Hyperliquid. The issue is that I think there's going to be a lot of competition in this per RWA space. I think Hyperliquid will be the winner. The question is how much of a multiple I'm going to be willing to pay for that. Is it as a, is there enough explosive? This is not an Ethena. If Hyperliquid was at 25, okay, fine. I could tell you, you know what? This thing is going to 100. I'm getting, I'm getting a nice 4x'er on this one pretty quick. But at 70 and, you know, 60s, cool. It could double, that's fine. Double's good. Good return. My issue is, my issue is how about 5x? Yeah. My, my, my issue with this and I, I hold a big bag of Hyperliquid. So it's a $71 billion fully diluted valuation. If you look at ICE, which is the holding company of the NASDAQ, and you look at their market cap at the moment, their fully diluted market cap is 88 billion. There's like, to me, there's not much like fat in Hyperliquid. There's like, as you said, I think the upside is limited. The downside is that regulators start clamping down on them. So, I think it's, as you said, I think it's a little bit of an asymmetric trade at the moment. I don't think your upside is 5x on a Hyperliquid at the moment. No, I don't think so either.”

“And your Ethena thesis. So tell me about the Ethena thesis. You've been very bullish about it. If Bitcoin is going, so you know, obviously Ethena is down something like 99% from its all-time high. Again, you can chalk that up to VC overhang, right? Yes, they had a big pre-sale, people had to sell, period. And if it's no buy, VC overhang, whatever, and also no interest in crypto, therefore no yield, therefore the mechanism of Ethena doesn't work. Yeah, again, and that's why the circulating supply is down something like 75% from like a high of 15 billion to like was four, now whatever it is, right? But this is purely predicated on the basis yield. So if Bitcoin is entering a new, you know, let's crush the shorts phase, like there's a lot of sellers who got their assets handed to them last night, that means that basis is going to rip, right? And so if basis is ripping, then Ethena and USD and staking it makes a lot of sense. Like it doesn't make sense at 4% yield, it makes a lot of sense at eight or nine, right? Given that Fed funds is at three, three and a half, 375. So yeah, there's a structural reason why Bitcoin rising plus the basis going up gives a nice catalyst for Ethena. It's bombed out as you can see. I think they're trying to clean out a lot of their locked tokens by offering people cents on the dollar to get them out to clear up, to clear up the chart. And I think that this thing is a 5x'er in a very short period of time. I must say I definitely agree with you. This is the right token to be buying at the bottom of a bear market because everyone's lost hope. This token works on demand for crypto. More demand for crypto, higher borrowing yields, higher, higher yields in Ethena, the whole flywheel starts to turn again.”

“So, you went all in on Ethereum. Why Ethereum over Bitcoin? So, I mean, we're structurally long a lot of Bitcoin, so it's not like it's over in one or the other, but for the small percentage of the portfolio that I swing trade in and out of different things, Ethereum is the bet right now. It's the most hated mega cap crypto. It has not eclipsed 2021 all-time high. You know, there's various valid reasons why it didn't happen, but that's not the point. It hasn't done it yet. People hate it. Nothing's happening. They're making fun of the foundation for other weirdness and, you know, the selling and all that kind of stuff. And so, it's just a hated coin, but it's also the most vibrant DeFi ecosystem. It's the base chain for a lot of these new RWA protocols like Robin Hood. And so, it's got a good, you know, narrative as a security DeFi layer. And yeah, I think that's a good enough layer, a good enough narrative, plus the bombed out nature, the lack of performance over the last four years, which creates the rip. Why did Ethereum go 20% today versus Bitcoin is like seven or eight, right? So like it's this, 'Oh wow, finally it's ETH time. Let's go.'”

“XRP, if it can break, look at this beautiful trend line on the daily XRP. You get a breakout above that and you got a making for a bigger short squeeze”

“Assets like Bitcoin, gold, silver, they perform best when money floods the economy.”

“If we don't end the war soon, and the war continues to run through May and June, and we get some kind of escalations, then there are inflation fears and the markets dump again.”

“I think very soon we get to the 78 level, which is the top of this wedge.”

“And as more time goes by without a solution, so the prices will carry on going down more.”

“You know ETH's going to go back up.”

“If that's true, then Zcash could have 100x potential from here.”