Benjamin Cowen

“I mean, my guess would be it would be between somewhere between 70 and 75k. Uh but if it's not, then there's this analysis is wrong, and there's no reason to put a lot of weight into it.”

“if it comes in hot then I imagine the rate hike probability would probably go up quite a bit which as we saw with non-farm payroll would likely kind of hit Bitcoin back down”

“But my guess is that history will once again repeat itself and Bitcoin will find itself having a date with Destiny relatively soon. My guess in the middle of June.”

“I would say what's most likely to happen is the Bitcoin tags 70K, bounces back up for a few days and then goes back to the February lows.”

“maybe a local low in June and then another low in October”

“I would still argue there would be a very likely chance that Bitcoin would still at least return back down to 60k sometime later this year”

“I've I've speculated for a while now that the next low would probably be near the end of 2026.”

“at least a sweep of the low at at 60 K, I think would be highly probable to happen within the next couple of months or so.”

“Ethereum this year, probably coming up very soon actually, will likely go to the lower part of its regression ban, just like it did at the end of 2019.”

“where that's what kind of corresponds to that Bitcoin drop into the back half of the year, which is how it typically plays out.”

“Look eventually I think it will go to 10 trillion plus or minus a few trillion.”

“perhaps in the next cycle we'll see it go back up”

“And unfortunately it is likely to stay that way for the rest of 2026.”

“If Bitcoin rallies into June then you would I would expect to then retest those lows in October because that would be the next major window of weakness.”

“My base case is that Bitcoin finds a lower high boom and then goes down into June. That is my base case.”

“if the low is 60k and we will not durably go below it I would still expect us to retest it sometime later this year probably in the summer or October potentially at the latest”

“I would lean towards Bitcoin going lower as the year goes on even if even if the strength persists for another another week or two that's my guess”

“What I think will likely be back to 60K. But I would say the timing on it will likely be within a couple of weeks or so.”

“So you guys may remember a few months ago I said that the most likely time for Bitcoin to bottom would in fact be October.”

“so it's hard not to imagine that Bitcoin won't just form a lower high in March”

“So with that said, I'd be looking for a low for the asset class sometime later this year. Let's see if this lower regression band comes into play.”

“we should see a short-term rally but it is not it's likely not a rally to a durable new all-time high it doesn't mean you can't see Bitcoin go higher right like and you could see it go back above 70k go to 75k who knows how high it will go”

“At some point this year, we likely will visit the bull market support band now coined bear market resistance band. And I would expect a rejection off of it.”

“before Bitcoin gets a durable bull market to all time highs, I would say there's pretty good odds that Bitcoin would drop below the realized price, which is currently at 55K and the balanced price is currently at 40K.”

“So that's kind of what I think is the most likely outcome here is to watch for a lower high for Bitcoin to form in March.”

“October, coincidentally, that's when I think Bitcoin is going to bottom potentially October of 2026.”